GUR will be like "Mossad" or "something will happen to Putin" - scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine revealed by Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe

Military expert and former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe Ben Hodges sees three to four possible scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine. His forecasts include both grim outcomes for Kyiv and strategies based on successful Israeli practices. The interview with his analysis was published on July 25, 2025, on “Ukrinform”.

Pessimistic scenario: the collapse of Ukraine

According to Hodges, the worst-case scenario is the complete collapse of Ukraine. He considers such an outcome unlikely but does not rule it out if Kyiv loses political will and allies — the U.S., Europe, and Canada — stop their support.
"The first and worst scenario is the complete collapse of Ukraine for any reason, including the lack of political will. This seems very unlikely, but let’s assume people are tired, and Russia somehow managed to break their will, and Europe, the U.S., and Canada simply gave up the fight," he noted.
If this scenario becomes reality, Russia will not only absorb Ukrainian armed forces but also prepare for further aggressive steps. According to the expert, the Kremlin's next targets could be Moldova or even NATO countries, such as Latvia.
Best scenario: activation of the West
The most optimistic path, according to Hodges, is connected with decisive actions by the U.S. and its allies. He emphasizes that supporting Ukraine is beneficial for the Western countries themselves:
- stabilization of the global food and energy market;
- deterrence of China;
- strengthening the Western economies.
"The best scenario is when the West truly becomes active, the U.S. steps up, and we recognize and act with the approach that Ukraine’s victory over Russia is in our interest. Not out of mercy for Ukraine, but because it’s in our interest, because it will help our economy, restore food and energy supplies that affect prices in Western countries," Hodges emphasized.
In such circumstances, "Ukraine will be in a strong position, and Russia will exist within its own borders," the military expert stressed.
Intermediate scenario: waiting for external changes
The third possible scenario is maintaining the current state for at least another year. The situation may change only with serious external factors: an economic collapse of Russia or an "unexpected event" with Putin.
"Probably another scenario will be somewhere in between, when in a year the situation will remain similar to the current one and not too different, unless some truly significant external changes occur. It’s hard to imagine that external circumstances will really change, but I hope that might happen. For example, Russia’s economy might completely collapse, something might happen to Putin... But you can’t make plans hoping that something like that will happen."

Israeli approach for Ukraine

Hodges paid special attention to Israeli experience. He believes that until Ukraine joins NATO, it must become an “unacceptable target” for Russia by maintaining constant combat readiness.
"This does not mean that fighting will happen daily, but Ukraine must be ready to repel drones and missiles, like Israel fights against Hezbollah," the expert noted.
He also pointed out the importance of:
- developing its own defense industry;
- creating regional alliances for protection, for example in the Black Sea area.
HUR like “Mossad”: a new level of intelligence
According to Hodges, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR) should operate under the model of “Mossad”. He believes that every Russian military officer involved in attacks on civilians should feel constant threat.
"And finally, I imagine that HUR will be similar to Mossad.
And every Russian officer who was even slightly involved in killing or attacking peaceful Ukrainians or in any other war crimes will, for the rest of his life, look under his car and glance over his shoulder, because he will know that HUR is waiting for him.
I think this is probably the most likely scenario," he said.
Ukraine and NATO
Hodges is convinced that Ukraine’s membership in NATO will become a key element of long-term regional security. The sooner this happens, the stronger the deterrence of the aggressor will be.
"But I would very much like us to become wiser. It is in our interest that Ukraine joins NATO. And the sooner, the better," he summed up.
Why it matters
For Israelis, Hodges’ forecasts are particularly significant: Israel’s experience in security and intelligence can serve as an example for Ukraine. Israel has long lived under constant threat, and its methods of defense show how small countries can withstand larger aggressors.
The project NAnews — News of Israel regularly emphasizes the importance of cooperation between Israel and Ukraine, the exchange of military experience and technology. These connections are particularly meaningful for the Jewish community from Ukraine, closely following the developments in their ancestral homeland.
The scenarios proposed by Hodges highlight the strategic role of the West, but the main factor of victory remains Ukraine’s own determination. The perspective of HUR operating under the “Mossad” model symbolizes a new level of the fight for security and justice.
The site NAnews — News of Israel will continue to follow this topic, analyzing how global experts view Ukraine’s future and Israel’s role in this process. https://nikk.agency/en/gur-will-be-like/