Israeli, Georgian, South Korean and Belarusian: "analysis" of 4 scenarios for Ukraine according to JPMorgan

The Largest US Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Publishes Research on the Russia-Ukraine War

The largest US bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., published research on the war between Russia and Ukraine, claiming that a ceasefire agreement could be reached in 2025. The study was prepared by the newly established Center for Geopolitics, created to help clients assess geopolitical risks.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported the creation of this Center, which will regularly publish reports on issues related to Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, and global rearmament. These reports are expected to be released quarterly.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that by mid-2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will "most likely" be forced to reach an agreement with Russia. This will lead to a frozen frontline but will not be a full peace agreement. According to the bank’s experts, this forecast is due to several factors: military equipment in Europe is running out, Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of fighters, and the US is losing patience. It is also noted that "transatlantic unity is cracking."
The report also mentions that if Russia continues its current pace of advancement, it will take about 118 years to fully capture Ukraine. However, Putin will seek an agreement that will help him achieve his goal — eventually taking control of Kyiv.
Analysts note that the strength of any agreement will depend on how much the concessions from Ukraine and the West satisfy Putin, as well as the strength of the security guarantees for Ukraine.
In May 2025, experts from JPMorgan Chase presented 4 possible scenarios for the development of events for Ukraine, each of which poses risks and challenges for both the country itself and international stability.
Which of these scenarios will turn out to be the most likely?
The scenarios of "return to the 1991 borders" and "victory over Russia" are not considered by JPMorgan Chase...

Scenarios for Ukraine's Development According to JPMorgan

According to analysts at JPMorgan, by mid-2025, Ukraine may agree to freeze hostilities, but this will not lead to a final peace. The report examines four scenarios, including "Georgian", "Israeli", "South Korean", and "Belarusian".
Georgian Scenario: Returning Under Russia's Influence (Probability — 50%)
This option predicts the gradual weakening of Western support for Ukraine, freezing the processes of Eurointegration, and weakening Kyiv’s position in the international arena. Ukrainian territories may lose sovereignty and end up under the control of Russia, as happened with Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the conflict in Georgia in 2008.
- Main Features: Weakening of Ukraine’s position on the international stage.
- Political and economic pressure from Russia, which could lead to the loss of part of Ukraine's territories.
- The "freezing" of international relations, similar to the situation after the war in Georgia in 2008, when the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia de facto came under Russian control.
Consequences:
- Ukraine returns to Russia's sphere of influence, which means a restriction on political and security decisions.
- Ukraine’s foreign policy will be oriented toward seeking compromises with Russia, as well as maintaining at least minimal relations with the West.
- Possible democratic degradation and lower living standards for citizens.
South Korean Scenario: Stability Without Full Peace (Probability — 15%)
In this scenario, Ukraine retains its independence and democratic institutions but does not achieve full victory in the conflict. The country will not become a member of NATO and will not regain all occupied territories, but will maintain stability and the involvement of international peacekeeping forces, as in the case of South Korea, where stability has been maintained despite the absence of a peace treaty with North Korea.
- Main Features: Guaranteed independence for Ukraine and the preservation of democratic institutions.
- Absence of full peace, as in South Korea, where North Korea and South Korea continue to be in a state of tension, but without active hostilities.
- International peacekeeping forces (for example, European troops) could be deployed on Ukrainian territory to ensure security.
Consequences:
- Ukraine maintains its territorial integrity in the areas controlled by it but does not regain all territories occupied by Russia.
- Absence of NATO and full EU membership, although Ukraine retains important ties with Europe and receives financial aid.
- Emergence of uncertainty in security, as Russia continues to threaten Ukraine.
Israeli Scenario: Self-Defense with Western Support (Probability — 20%)
Israeli Scenario is based on the experience of Israel, which has defended its borders and maintained stability in the face of constant threats from neighboring countries. In this scenario, Ukraine retains its independence but does not receive significant foreign military presence.
- Main Features: Self-defense for Ukraine, where the country holds its front lines but receives support in the form of weapons and finances.
- Constant threat of escalation, with which Ukraine faces, requiring mobilization of society and high readiness for military action, like in Israel.
- Western support, but without direct military intervention. Ukraine receives arms, economic aid, and political support, but not on a permanent basis.
Consequences:
- Ukraine retains independence but in conditions of constant threat of new escalation of the conflict.
- The possibility of survival and sustainability, like in Israel, but with high costs for the military and infrastructure.
- Mobilization of society, creating military potential for the country's defense, possible development of thermonuclear technologies and military resources.
Belarusian Scenario: Defeat Due to Loss of Support (Probability — 15%)
The most pessimistic scenario, in which USA and Europe significantly reduce their support for Ukraine or completely refuse to participate in the Ukrainian issue. In this case, Ukraine finds itself in a protracted conflict with Russia without international support.
- Main Features: Complete isolation of Ukraine from international support.
- Undermining the independence of Ukraine, possible capitulation and recognition by Russia of its territories.
- Economic collapse and loss of state sovereignty.
Consequences:
- Ukraine will be in the most vulnerable position, with minimal chances of restoring territorial integrity and stability.
- Complete capitulation to Russia and loss of political and economic decision-making freedom.
Which Scenario is Most Likely?
According to JPMorgan, the most likely scenario is partial ceasefire in 2025, which will allow the parties to "catch their breath." However, it will not guarantee long-term peace, and on the contrary, it will create the groundwork for a possible new escalation, as happened after the Minsk agreements.
The Future of Ukraine: What Decisions Will the International Community Make?
The decisions of Washington, Brussels, and other global centers will be crucial for the future of Ukraine. How many Western countries will be willing to support Ukraine? What steps will the West take to prevent the advance of Russia? Security and stability issues will become the main topics for international negotiations.
On the website of NAnews - Israel News, you can always find up-to-date information about the political situation and its impact on relations between countries. https://nikk.agency/en/of-4-scenarios/